Risk Scenarios 2018

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

It is not easy to build plausible yet severe economic scenarios. Doubly so, if those scenarios are assessed in LINKS Mira Agent Based Model (ABM). Unlike conventional models, Mira ABM takes into account unintended consequences of events – both positive and negative. Just like in real life, positive and negative effects cancel each other out, with little impact on investments. So suggest your scenario for 2018 by describing it on our LinkedIn feed, or better still, by downloading Mira ABM and introducing the scenario in our system. The best (or the worst?) scenario will earn you a New Year’s gift and a professional reputation among our institutional clients.

Some effective scenario pointers:

  • Any social, geopolitical or economic hypothetical but plausible event can become a basis for a scenario
  • In order to build a scenario, we will need “the point of first impact”, i.e. an industry in a country that experiences direct economic hardship in terms of changes prices or volumes due to the scenario. For example, an incomplete scenario is “a war in North Korea”. A more complete scenario is: “a war in North Korea cuts production volumes of mobile phones, semiconductors and flat screens in South Korea”.
  • Impactful scenarios tend to be large, across multiple industries and countries with greater trade ties with the rest of the world.
  • You can read more about building scenarios with Mira ABM here.

How to Suggest a Scenario:

You can describe the scenario on our LinkedIn feed., or send as an email: info@linksanalytics.com

Run Economic and Geo-political Scenarios

Explore how Agent-Based Models (ABMs) can be used to run stress tests and scenario analyses.