Risk Wire: China – The Threat of Unchecked Leverage

In the six years since LINKS first covered risks of excessive leverage in the Chinese economy, both understanding of and dealing with leverage has been a key focus for the government of China. Despite

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Run Economic and Geo-political Scenarios

Explore how Agent-Based Models (ABMs) can be used to run stress tests and scenario analyses.
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Risk Wire: Do Inflationary Concerns Warrant Hedging?

Some sources of inflationary risk are more benign than others. Given the structural headwinds that the global economy faces, a broad inflation hedging programme can be expensive and unnecessary. On the other hand, the

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Risk Wire: The Fragile Exposure to Technology

Much has been discussed about the technology sector concentration of S&P 500. Although we find that the degree of concentration is not unusual, once certain myths about the largest companies are dispelled, the nature

Investing in the Age of Disruption

The emerging disruptive forces of technological, political and demographic change threaten to destabilise long-term investment performance. It will take special kind of capacity building and flexibility for institutional investors to benefit from disruption rather than

End of Oil Greatly Exaggerated

Of all the global risk sources at the tail end of 2017, a sudden oil price shock arguably poses the greatest risk to institutional portfolios both in terms of its likelihood and the severity of

Risk Wire: Is Global Reflation Sustainable?

The global reflation trade has been in the centre of investor attention lately. One-off factors such as Brexit, commodity price increases due to government policy in China and oil price that rebounded from low levels,

Risk Wire: Quantifying the Headlines From Trump to Brexit

Is media coverage of potential sources of economic disasters proportionate to their likely impact on the economy and institutional portfolios? Investors form their perception of the magnitude of risk based on large number of public

Risk Scenario: China Disorderly Economic Collapse

Why is The Scenario Risky? The second largest economy in the world, with reported debt-to-GDP rate of 240% to 280% and a far greater ratio, if shadow banking is taken into account (source: Bloomberg,

We provide robust asset return forecasts, asset allocation and systemic risk management to institutional investors. Our competence lies in the field of cross asset valuation, global investment risk sources, pathways and network effects.